PROJECT HIGHLIGHT
Current efforts to restore kelp can only succeed if we understand the conditions kelps need to thrive. This project will create a forecasting tool for understanding future states of California’s kelp forests and to enable timely decision-making for kelp restoration.
PROJECT SUMMARY
California suffered a massive loss of kelp during a prolonged marine heatwave in 2014-2016, causing devastating ecological and economic consequences. Despite a return to favorable ocean conditions, kelp forests have not recovered in many locations and remain locked in an undesirable state dominated by sea urchins. This project addresses this challenge by shifting from reactive to proactive intervention strategies through advanced forecasting tools.
The project investigates at which locations along the California coast kelp can survive long-term under shifting environmental conditions and aims to identify monthly and seasonal factors that help or hinder kelp restoration. Rather than solely focusing on the difficult task of "tipping" urchin-dominated systems back to kelp forests, this research develops predictive models that function similar to the weather forecasting tools farmers use for planting and harvesting decisions.
Significant progress has been made in developing species distribution models using generalized additive models to identify future kelp forest hotspots and coldspots under shifting environmental conditions. The research team has combined 20 years of SCUBA survey data from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Coastal Oceans and Reef Check with environmental variables from three Earth System Models to establish relationships between key drivers such as temperature, nitrate, phytoplankton and wind stress. The team has developed models for giant kelp and bull kelp as well as supporting models for purple sea urchins and is integrating wave condition predictions from the United States Geological Survey. These combined models will generate forecasts of kelp abundance through 2100, creating quarterly and annual maps of kelp density that will be assembled into a web-based platform accessible to resource managers and restoration practitioners.