PROJECT HIGHLIGHT
This project will use an approach known as agent-based modeling — which analyzes the way many individual decisions weave together into collective outcomes — to examine the potential impacts of policy decisions about Central Valley water. This will allow policymakers to make more informed decisions that will strengthen the region’s ecological and economic health.
PROJECT SUMMARY
California's Central Valley, a major contributor to the nation's agricultural production, is expected to change in the coming decades: rainfall patterns will shift, droughts will be more intense and water is likely to become increasingly scarce. These changes will lead to societal shifts and difficult decisions about land and water use.
To prepare for these decisions, policymakers need to understand potential future scenarios. This project will use a tool called an "agent-based model" (ABM), which simulates how individual decision-makers (like farmers and urban developers) respond to changing conditions. By modeling the combined results of these varied individual choices, researchers can better understand how small-scale decisions add up to create larger patterns of land use across the region.
The project has two main parts: First, researchers will analyze historical land use changes to understand how people have adapted to environmental shifts in the past. Second, they will utilize ABM and a water planning model such as CalSim3 to simulate potential land use scenarios. This combined approach is designed to help policymakers understand how different water management strategies and land use policies could impact both agricultural productivity and environmental conservation in the Central Valley.
This project is funded by the Delta Stewardship Council Delta Science Program under Agreement No. DSC23011 and is administered by California Sea Grant.